alleged / presumed
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alleged
Based on an assumption; probable, but not proven. The word is often used in legal or journalistic contexts to describe a fact that has not yet been established by a court.
Der mutmaßliche Täter wurde kurz nach der Tat festgenommen.
The alleged perpetrator was arrested shortly after the crime.
The word derives from 'Mut' (here in the old sense of 'thought' or 'assumption') and 'maßen' (to judge, estimate). 'Mutmaßlich' therefore literally means 'according to an assumption or estimate'.
Die Polizei geht von einer mutmaßlichen Brandstiftung aus.
The police assume it was alleged arson.
This word belongs to formal language and is used especially in news reports, police reports, and legal texts. It expresses that something has not yet been proven and that the presumption of innocence applies.
Die Zeitung berichtete über den mutmaßlichen Betrugsfall.
The newspaper reported on the alleged fraud case.
'Mutmaßlich' is very often used in combination with people or circumstances in a legal context. Typical phrases are 'der mutmaßliche Täter' (the alleged perpetrator), 'die mutmaßliche Ursache' (the presumed cause), or 'die mutmaßliche Schadenshöhe' (the estimated amount of damage).
Die mutmaßliche Todesursache war ein Herzinfarkt.
The presumed cause of death was a heart attack.
probable / likely
'wahrscheinlich' and 'mutmasslich' can both express that something is assumed or presumed. 'wahrscheinlich' is a normal everyday word and fits many situations when something is very possible. 'mutmasslich' sounds much more formal and means: something is assumed, but it has not yet been proven. You often hear it in the news, with the police, or in court. The words can be confused because both express less than full certainty. For everyday sentences, 'wahrscheinlich' is usually right. 'mutmasslich' fits when you are speaking cautiously about a fact that has not yet been proven.
Die Polizei sucht den mutmasslichen Täter nach dem Einbruch.
The police are looking for the alleged perpetrator after the break-in.
Ich habe den Schlüssel wahrscheinlich im Büro vergessen.
I probably left the key at the office.